Paper 53: The Memes Smash $75,000,000 Marketcap
Your five options to participate in the upside
GM - this is the BCheque Papers, edition #53.
Welcome to the 70+ new subscribers this week!
I write about NFTs/crypto, and trying to make it independently in web3.
This is what we’ve got this week:
This Week In NFT World - $20M buying….Sewer Passes
Sponsored Post - Lil Nouns Funds You
Risk On - The Memes Smash $75,000,000 Marketcap
On The Horizon - Verse, NFTUK, Prophouse
For sponsorship enquires, please DM me on Twitter.
Have a great day,
B
This Week in NFT World - $20M buying….Sewer Passes
You read that right.
This week Yuga Labs, the creators of Bored Ape Yacht Club, dropped the The Sewer Pass to its holders for free.
It gives the holders access to a game and the highest score will win The Key (which has got stuck in the butt of an ape - as keys sometimes can - as explained in their video below)
The Sewer Pass has done 12,500 ETH ($19,359,750) of secondary volume.
There are four tiers of passes and they trade at approximately 2 ETH ($3k) for Tier 1, 2.7 ETH ($4k) for Tier 2, 3.4 ETH ($5k) for Tier 3, and 6.4 ETH ($10k) for Tier 4.
Early estimates are that The Key will go for $1,000,000 (no lie!)
It is also rumoured to grant holders an access to a new type of ape: a mecha ape!
XCOPY 1/1 sells for 206.9E on secondary
On Wednesday N by XCOPY resold on SuperRare for 206.9 ETH ($326,539.92)
XCOPY 1/1s have been selling prolifically in this price range in the last month.
His most accessible edition, Afterburn, has remained stable in the 4-5 ETH range (which is nuts because ETH has risen up 30% in the last couple weeks = these are getting more expensive in USD.)
Another CryptoPunk worth $100,000 trades for Wolf Game land parcels
CryptoPunks are one of the grail NFT collections; Wolf Game may be the grail blockchain game.
Seedphrase, prominent NFT collector, traded a CryptoPunk worth around $100,000 for 3 Wolf Game land parcels. (In the game there are wolves, sheep, land, farmers, resources - it’s a thing.)
This is the second time Seedphrase has traded a CryptoPunk for Wolf Game land.
The first trade was so that he could control more water in the game; this time the trade was focussed on securing more land with “structures”. What is life without some good infrastructure around you?!
Nakamoto Freedom Card sells multiple times between 20 - 25 ETH
The Nakamoto Freedom Card in The Memes collection by Punk 6529 has seen 5 recent sales between 20 - 25 ETH ($30,000 - $40,000).
This card is considered to be the grail Meme Card because it encapsulates the “Freedom to transact” message of the collection and has the lowest supply at 300.
Being on the allowlist for this collection is still a 10x for minters (3x a week). I have been on the allowlist 7/8 times so far in Season 2. Today’s thought piece will be running some numbers for what you would need to do to get involved...
395 ETH Bored Ape Sale Brokered by The OTC Network
Erick of The OTC Network, a top-end NFT brokerage, brokered a double robot Bored Ape sale for $615,000 after 55 emails between the clients.
In his opinion this Bored Ape is a “top 3 or possibly the best ape in the collection”.
Zhu Su and Kyle Davis are back with a new cryptoexchange?
It has been reported by Wu Blockchain that founders of 3AC, Zhu Su and Kyle Davis, are launching a new cryptoexchange: GTX - similarly named (laughably so) to the disgraced FTX.
After the collapse of 3AC, the crypto-hedge fund which Zhu and Kyle used to operate, and their apparent lack of co-operation with law enforcement authorities, this must be a joke. Right? Right….?
Sponsored Post - Lil Nouns Funds You
The Lil Nouns supports builders by funding ‘Nounish’ ideas.
It is difficult to become self-sovereign in web3 as a creator:
(i) specific crypto/nft/blockchain knowledge creates a high barrier to entry;
(ii) there is so much noise on twitter and discord it is difficult to locate the quality people and projects; and
(iii) since the market has turned, funding has become harder to obtain.
Most people have either taken whatever opportunity they can get in this market, been distracted and seduced by the very risky trading of NFTs, or disappeared as they feel like opportunity has evaporated.
The Lil Nouns provide a direct route to funding for passionate, thoughtful and committed creators in this space. Lil Nouns, a fork of Nouns DAO, provide funding for all sorts of 'Nounish' content. They have a huge treasury which needs to be spent on initiatives to proliferate the Nounish message - and you could help!
I myself received 0.8 ETH ($1,200) to provide this message to all of you. I secured this funding after submitting a marketing proposal to the DAO, discussing it with them and confirming its suitability - and, as importantly, hanging out with them and catching the ‘Nounish’ vibe!
If you are curious about contributing to a cutting-edge DAO and getting paid at the same time:
Join the Discord at this link and tag me when you arrive so we can see how your skillsets best fit with the Nounish mission today: Lil Nouns Discord
Risk On - The Memes Smash $75,000,000 Marketcap
This is my second thought piece on The Memes collection by Punk6529 because the collection has exploded to a $75,000,000 marketcap. (First article was We Love The Memes two weeks ago.)
As things stand, people who are eligible to mint each meme card drop instantly make 10-15x - sometimes more. Some people are experiencing FOMO, so I thought I’d run some numbers based on the eligibility criteria to help.
I am participating in this upside (in my own small way) as I have been able to mint 7 out of the last 8 cards - so I believe I am qualified to explore/explain
(i) what it would take for you to get involved and
(ii) what I did to stay involved.
Five important points before we begin:
The Memes is a money printer at the moment because there is at a minimum some serious demand for the cards and the underlying message which they represent - if you need some background, read about that in my previous newsletter, We Love The Memes.
The Memes may not be a money printer forever, or even one more time. The criteria to be on the allowlist changes each week. I have no knowledge of what WILL happen. I only notice trends (and I basically do that by reading; it’s not rocket science).
This will be written for how you can best position for the allowlist based on historical trends (because you are degens and deep down this is what your soul yearns). That is NOT to say you should position yourself for an allowlist - I don’t know how much money you have. It may be costly to get allowlists, but it is NOT as costly to participate in the ecosystem - please recognise that distinction, as the brilliant data analyst and writer, Tyler, rightly points out.
I’m not super religious with the numbers. I am looking at the data but I am making certain estimations.
Snapshots for who holds which cards to determine who is able to mint typically take place one day before a drop (but this may change). Always check the 6529 Collections twitter account to check the schedule.
So on to the numbers, what it would take for you to participate in the upside, and what I have done.
How to get an allowlist
As I wrote in my previous paper, We Love The Memes, the allowlist details are all public. You can read them each week on the 6529 Collections account.
The allowlists are currently taking place in two phases.
Phase 1
These are the people who have been able to mint in Phase 1 in the last two drops.
You can see this group of people. (We will look at how much it costs to be one of these people in a moment.)
some artist edition holders;
top X number of meme card holders RANKED BY UNIQUE CARDS
top X number of SZN2 meme card holders RANKED BY UNIQUE CARDS
some random meme card holders
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6529 Gradient/RAW/1 of 1 holders
Phase 2
In Phase 2 you have these groups of people:
Next X number of meme card holders / next X number of meme card holders ranked by unique card cards
Some random meme card holders
Do you need to be in Phase 1 or Phase 2?
Well, it depends.
One day Phase 2 finished without the cards being minted out.
The last card minted on Wednesday sold out in Phase 1.
As such, it’s difficult to say in which Phase you must be.
Ultimately, at the moment, Phase 1 is the only real guarantee (but even in Phase 1 if you were too late for the latest drop you would have been without a card).
How can you be in Phase 1 (based on the above information)?
Here is how much it would cost at the time of writing to be one of the ‘Phase 1 people’ mentioned above to *almost certainly* guarantee yourself a mint.
Option 1: some artist edition holders - this completely depends on the artist how much it would cost. Some more established artist editions cost much more than other artist editions. In any event, we rarely have much notice who the meme artists will be in advance of the snapshot or which editions of theirs will qualify, so I can’t put a number on this as I don’t see it as a viable option (if you get lucky, then great!). In my view this category is great for if you have 0 meme cards, always check in on the list if an artist you have collected is dropping a card.
Option 2: top X number of meme card holders RANKED BY UNIQUE CARDS - using this brilliant dashboard by Catherine you can enter your wallet and see where your wallet ranks in terms of total cards held and get a sense of where you rank in terms of unique cards.
To be in the Top 300 holders it looks like you need approx. 30 cards - if you bought the cheapest 30 cards, that would cost you approx. 20 ETH ($31,000)
To be in the Top 750 holders it looks like you need approx. 13 cards - if you bought the cheapest 13 cards, that would cost you approx. 7.3E ($11,300)
Option 3: top X number of SZN2 meme card holders RANKED BY UNIQUE CARDS - to be in Top 300 holders of SZN2 cards you need to hold all of the SZN2 cards. There are 8 SZN2 cards. They would cost you 12.3E ($19,000)
Option 4: some random meme card holders - good luck for this one - can never know - cheapest card is 0.345E ($535) to be in the game. It’s nice to always have this option to keep everyone in with a chance to grow their collection.
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Option 5: 6529 Gradient/RAW/1 of 1 holders - the only ones of these for sale are Gradients and one would cost you 56 ETH ($87,000).
Conclusion:
The cheapest of the options is to hold the cheapest card worth $535. With 5,864 unique holders, you are unlikely to be selected (probably better than your local lottery though?)
The hopeful option is to get into the Top 750 for around $11k. Will the allowlists always be that large? I wouldn’t feel too safe around there - but if the drop sizes continue to be on the larger size, this could be viable.
The best option of all is drop 30 - 40 big ones down and get into that Top 200 - 300 holders bracket and buy 30-35 cards. (Or be a boss and buy a Gradient for $90k). You may not have that spare change in your pocket though…
The most reasonable option appears at the moment to be: get all of SZN2 cards for $19,000 - though I believe this number was much lower even just a few days ago, so think people have switched onto this and they are trading at a premium. (A new issue is what happens when too many people have SZN2 full set? What’s the tie breaker? Think it might default to total number of unique cards held.)
What have I done?
I noticed we were going to move to a system where we would be ranked by UNIQUE CARDS rather than TOTAL CARDS.
So I sold all my extra (8) First GMs for 0.3E (bought for 0.15) - reinvested into other unique cards (and took some profit/tax money out.)
I thought I was going to just continue my responsible “keep the chickens, sell the eggs” philosophy, but minting this piece from Artur changed my mind.
It was too good.
I bought back the “survive in virtuality” piece which I had sold, and decided to try to make sure I had all of SZN2.
When I was not on the list for one of the SZN2 mints, I bought off the secondary for 0.6 ETH to keep myself in the “collect a full SZN2 set” game.
When I was able to mint 2 of another SZN2 mint, I held so that if I miss another one in future, I will be able to trade for it.
Simultaneously, I have been upping my unique holder count by selling/putting up for sale my rekt6529s (owned 4 or 5; now hold 3) and buying some different memes I like.
I am around the Top 450 holder mark now with 18 unique cards - approx 19E ($29,500) portfolio valuation. I’d estimate I’ve spent about 6 - 7E ($9-10,000).
Looking forward
As I have said over and over, there are no guarantees with this - things change.
If you need proof, look at this DRAFT document of how a “total days held” factor may be applied.
I’m not even going to begin to analyse this.
As such, play the game, if you want, with money you can afford to allocate, and most of all enjoy the proliferation of the memes.
Also, don’t forget: whilst there is a financial element to this, there are amazing artists at work here. And interestingly, when I self-reflect, it was the art which made me change my own course.
I hope that was helpful!
DM me if you have any questions or think I have missed something important.
On The Horizon - Verse, NFTUK, Prophouse
A new segment where I include some things I have my eye on:
I just like the art curated by Verse.
Heading to the NFT UK meetup this month
Prophouse research - after receiving some funding from Lil Nouns, want to dive into that community a bit more and see how else the prophouse platform is used.
Have a great day,
B
Please do leave me any questions or thoughts here - I respond to every one!
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Disclaimer: The content covered in this newsletter is not to be considered as investment advice. It is for informational and educational purposes only.
I hold some of the NFTs mentioned in these newsletters.
Great write up this week!