Paper 49: My $10,000 to $1,000,000 Bet
Every now and again you have to bet on yourself
GM - this is the BCheque Papers, edition #49.
I write about NFTs/crypto, and trying to make it independently in web3.
This is what we’ve got this week:
This Week In Crypto - Sam extradited to the US + thrown under the bus
This Week In NFT World - Why Own A House When You Can Own NFTs?
Betting On Yourself - My $10,000 to $1,000,000 Bet
Trading Mistake of The Week
For sponsorship enquires, please DM me on Twitter.
Have a great day,
B
This Week In Crypto - Sam extradited to the US + thrown under the bus
SBF extradited to the US and thrown under the bus by former colleagues who have been charged and pled guilty - After fighting extradition to the US and a few days in Bahamian prison, Sam changed his mind. In no time he was on his way to the US looking much more like the exotic criminal on the run - and you can get the same look too!
In even worse news for SBF, Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang, the former CEO of Alameda and CTO of FTX, respectively, are cooperating with the authorities to build a case against SBF. Felt like a dramatic but important announcement by the SDNY below.
3 learnings from the charges:
Ellison, acting at direction of SBF, automated purchases of FTT to inflate value of collateral so Alameda could borrow even more money against FTT
SBF directed FTX to divert billions of dollars in customer assets to Alameda when prices crashed in May
FTT declared a security. It is illegal to issue securities without the proper process and formalities considered. This is perhaps the biggest news as it could have widespread implications for many people who have issued/participated in token launches (ie everyone influential in crypto)
Visa publish paper on auto-payments for self-custodial wallets - Visa want to be seen as a “trusted bridge between the crypto ecosystem” and their global network. For this reason they have published a paper on account abstraction and how to set up autopayments on a self-custodial wallet. The ecosystem may be down bad right now, but the biggest players know the underlying tech is the future…
2. This Week in NFT World -Why Own A House When You Can Own NFTs?
$753k loan taken out against 30 Cryptopunks at 4.3% APR - Cirrus, big NFT trader and lender, reported this and stated: “The average 30-yr fixed mortgage in America today is 7.2% APR... Wild to think you can borrow against some jpegs at better rates than you can borrow against a house in America.”
The Trial of Jimmy Video Dropped by YUGA - The creators of the Bored Ape Yacht Club dropped a teaser of the next part of their roadmap. WARNING: this is going to sound ridiculous.
The 1m 50 video starts and ends with an ape (presumably Jimmy) on the toilet. An ape knight comes out of the toilet and hands another ape a mystery box and a key, after which the ape knight disappears down the toilet again. The apes have a party; Jimmy manages to swallow the key. The apes appear to be furious with Jimmy and want to extract the key from him. Jimmy runs to the toilet, locks himself in, and tries to get the key out. The key appears to be stuck. And that’s NFT storytelling!
Manchester United drop their first ever digital collectible on Tezos - Manchester United have launched their collection of 7,777 digital devils.
Dmitri Cherniak’s The Wrapture #7 sells for 169ETH ($205,000) - Curated, a cryptonative fund which collects “exceptional crypto art and culture”, bought this piece for 169ETH.
Betting On Yourself - My $10,000 to $1,000,000 Bet
We are routinely taught that we should seek comfort and stability in our professions. And then we complain when we are bored and stagnate.
Many people seek to enrich their lives by other means: family, friends, extra-curricular activities.
Whilst these aspects of life are no doubt proper components of a happy and meaningful life, for some people - perhaps you as a reader of this newsletter focussed on creating and achieving sovereignty in life - there is no peace without working with more independence.
It has become obvious to me since I have embarked on my solo journey - first into Web3, NFT trading, writing, community building, investing - that in order to thrive independently it is imperative to think independently and critically, trust your judgment, and take action in a big way when the circumstances suggest you should.
There is noone to double-check things with you. There is noone to help you. There is noone to console you. Of course there are people around, but when taking the most important decisions it has to come from inside you: you cannot survive being reliant on others to constantly lift you up or support you.
Which brings me to this bet: a $10,000 bet I have just made.
I believe this is a 10x with a very outside chance of being a 100x play.
I haven’t asked anyone else.
I have thought, decided, and taken action.
To be clear on a few things:
i) I have hit 100xs before - so there is precedent for this
ii) I have thrown 1000s of dollars down the toilet too so there is precedent for that as well
iii) My conviction in this comes from my experience navigating this market since the start of 2021 AND is risk adjusted FOR MY CIRCUMSTANCES.
As I say at the bottom of my newsletter every week: the content covered in this newsletter is not to be considered as investment advice. It is for informational and educational purposes only.
I have just built a $10,000 position in the Manchester United Devils collection. Why?
Some thoughts:
The first ever “identity” collection by Manchester United, one of the biggest football clubs in the world;
Each one costs £30 and the supply is 7,777. This is a marketcap of £233,300. This is very low for a prominent NFT collection.
For context: there isn’t really a good “comparable” but here is a very popular prominent collection with similar supply:
Rektguy: 8,814 supply; floor price is approx. $1,000 = marketcap of $8,814,000
Value is really determined by what founders do to give the project value, so in the end it depends what Manchester United do to make it worth holding.
People were selling on the secondary market for even less than primary sale cost, so that’s where I was buying - plus I bought some rare ones there too.
I have seen this before when projects have not yet minted out. There is a period of time when the mint is still live where people list for almost the same price as mint - as soon as the primary sale finishes the prices rocket (at the time of writing we are at 6,086/7,777 sold)
I have also seen when projects launch on less familiar chains (Trump cards on Polygon), there is a period of time where people do not know how to buy or sell. This has launched on Tezos, and there is clear confusion for some on how to operate seamlessly.
I support Manchester United - if the prices go up we win, if the price goes down, maybe I’ve helped towards the purchase of our next striker lol.
I rarely talk about my plans like this or my wins. All this time I have been writing this newsletter I have been a profitable NFT trader (although it isn’t what I spend most time on anymore).
I do NOT share this to try to make you buy on this occasion.
I share this because I think it is relevant to operating in this space alone: sometimes there are opportunities with small time windows which you have to seize without the support of anyone else. (And to be clear, this is not always financial - sometimes you just need the clarity of thought and stones to take a decision.)
Whether you are right or wrong, you have to make the play (after due consideration and process) and live or die by your decision.
I hope by sharing this, when that opportunity comes for you, you have the self-confidence to take it.
Trading Mistake of The Week
Ape NFTs can currently be staked for $ APE.
This means holders can essentially be paid a token for holding the asset - almost like interest accruing by depositing an asset.
What people should know - but clearly some do not know - is that if you sell your asset whilst your asset is staking, all of the $ APE coin (the interest accrues) goes with the sale. Tragedy!
Have a great day,
B
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Disclaimer: The content covered in this newsletter is not to be considered as investment advice. It is for informational and educational purposes only.
I hold some of the NFTs mentioned in these newsletters.
strong choice with MU my friend, thank you for sharing your thought process!