GM - this is The Snapshot, edition #111.
This is what I’ve got for you today:
This Week In NFT World - $2.3B of liquidity unleashed on new L2 Blast
Sponsored Post - Lil Nouns Go To A Lil Volcano?
Notable Sales - Fidenzas, Punks, #2 Inscription
Investor Focus - 40x for angel Portalcoin investors: my thinking
For sponsorship enquires, please DM me on Twitter.
Have a great day,
B
This Week In NFT World - Crypto on FIRE
BTC up 18%; ETH up 12%; SOL up 22% on the week
Why?
The ferocious demand for the BTC ETFs, which we have spoken about multiple times in the last few weeks, will not stop and is setting new records.
Key part: record volume doubled from the “New Nine” ETFs with about $6B traded.
An interesting point that many have made is that the maths simply does not add up for the BTC number to stay where it is or go down when considering the amount of BTC mined per day vs the amount bought in the ETFs per day.
There was 12x more demand for bitcoin than what the network produced yesterday. Literally not enough bitcoin for everyone.
In addition, it is being reported that institutional investment advisors Fidelity has started to recomend a 1-3% BTC allocation.
"I once heard an early pioneer in private equity say that he didn’t understand the tech but he did understand the formation of a new asset class. And that was his thesis for crypto. That it would grow in the same way private equity did from once a non existent asset class to what it is today."
BTC bulls are delighted.
Node Monkes approach $30k as Ordinals rip with BTC
It was just the other day I said NodeMonkes were undervalued at $10k IF a Madlad cost $20k.
And just like that, NodeMonkes have risen from 0.15 BTC to almost 0.5 BTC ($30,000) - whilst BTC has aggressively increased in value in the same time frame.
Even the Puppets are worth $12k each now.
BTC Ordinals are on fire.
A few reasons why:
not many great collections there so underdeveloped market at the moment;
slow chain so transactions take a long time to execute;
slow liquidity in the sense that sellers cannot just sell loads in one click like they can on ETH;
genuinely could be the start of the formation of a new asset class on the king BTC chain (the chain with most wealth - why wouldn’t their assets be most expensive too? It’s more expensive to buy things in London and NYC - so should it be on BTC).
$2.3B of liquidity unleashed on new L2 Blast
Legendary creator of Blur NFT marketplace Pacman finally announced that Blast L2 was live yesterday.
181,888 community members bridged $2.3B to Blast in the last few months. And what is unique to the Blast L2 is that these community members are earning $85 million per year in native yield (+ Blast Points).
Whilst those points are expected to convert to the Blast token which should be very lucrative (remember I wrote about this back in November) - there is another additional incentive:
50% of the Blast Airdrop is allocated to Blast Points (users), and 50% to Blast Gold (dapps). Gold will be distributed to Dapps every 2 weeks. Dapps can keep Gold for themselves, but the best Dapps have already committed to giving all their Gold to users.
So not only do you get Blast points, you also get more Blast Gold points by using the dApps - AND those protocols will drop THEIR OWN tokens, so you get exposure to those.
What a time to be alive.
Sponsored Post - Lil Nouns Go To A Lil Volcano?
Lil Nouns DAO is voting on a 5 ETH proposal to give Lil Nouns a big presence at important ETH events in Central America to onboard the Latin community.
What are the details?
One part will be IRL at two of the most important Ethereum events in the Central American region, followed by two months of educational and informative content surrounding the Lil Nouns ecosystem in order to push the delegation campaign.
Looks pretty fun!
This is just another example of Lil Nouns DAO governance in action - we will see how the DAO votes!
If you are curious about contributing to a cutting-edge DAO and getting paid to bring your ideas to life: check out our website.
Notable Sales - Fidenzas, Punks, #2 Inscription
Tyler Hobbs, Fidenza - 75 ETH ($233,000)
CrytoPunk, Hoodie - 132 ETH ($457,000)
Tyler Hobbs, Fidenza - 75 ETH ($260,000)
Ordinal inscription #2 24.48 BTC ($1,400,532)
Investor Focus - 40x for angel Portalcoin investors: my thinking
I agreed with all of the analysis by prominent collector and trader @CirrusNFT which I heard him discussing with @leap_xyz earlier today - but there was one framework which I used which was not mentioned: read to the end for that final piece.
1. Green flags vs red flags
I agreed there was sometimes too much mystery to Portalcoin when you were in search of some hard facts. However I considered that the team behind Creepz was legit and I was impressed by the IRL activations they executed and the connections/community they had built.
This was the starting point of thinking. Much more DYOR needed.
2. Web 3 Gaming
Undoubtedly a hot topic - huge addressable market - real case for trying to make sense of all the various chains and make onboarding process easier for gamers.
This was an aspect I can see, but as someone who is not a gamer, I almost don't attach a huge amount to my own opinion here .
3. Attention
This is where it gets more interesting for me. I read an article by @cobie on "tokens in the attention economy".
A key conclusion: "Attention is the only scarce resource in crypto. The rate of change of attention and the saturation of ownership are useful metrics to observe or estimate when valuing crypto assets or playing the massive multiplayer crypto trading video game. The best thrill traders are hunting for low relative popularity assets that have lots of space for their valuations to grow if they are able to cross the chasm from obscure to popular. They are selling them when ownership catches up with attention."
Portalcoin had captured attention in a big way. There was a discrepancy between this and their valuation. This takes us to valuations.
4. Valuations
I read another article by Cobie "on the meme of market caps & unlocks".
Key learning: "Project, investors and founders seem incentivised to maximise their fully diluted market cap (and thus private wealth) by funneling as much open market $ into the smallest float possible. By doing this, a project can create vast paper profits for investors and the team."
Taking this together with the attention point, Portalcoin raising at $59M FDV was simply too low.
But what I write next is what made me pull the trigger.
5. Probabilistic thinking
This is what helped me the most. I read ANOTHER article by Cobie (I actually read all of them over and over again since this was one of my first bigger investments) called "Probabilistic thinking".
The way this works is thinking of some potential outcomes and attaching a % chance of those outcomes happening.
I did this for Portalcoin. What could happen?
1. Trade lower
2. Trade the same
3. Trade higher
4. Rug
What was the likelihood of these potential outcomes?
1. Rug - With proper founders who have built throughout the bear and done good work - almost no chance - but let's just say 2.5% chance for the sake of argument
2. Trade lower - With Portalcoin raising at 59M FDV, with MEME at $2B, PRIME at almost $1B and GRAPE struggling at 160M (numbers from old research but just for example) - v unlikely Portalcoin could trade lower - like I literally thought there was no chance of this - but let's just say I attach 2.5% chance to this too
3. Trade the same - I could not find a comparable that made me think Portalcoin would trade the same as the price it wanted to raise at. Again, super unlikely, but let's say maybe more likely than either 'trade lower' or 'rug' - so 5%
4. Trade higher - Because of how unlikely the other scenarios were, this left me with 90% to attach to "trade higher" So the question was: do you want to make a bet on something which is 90% likely to trade higher (and 95% likely to trade at the same price or higher)
Sounded like good odds, so I placed the bet without thinking any more on it.
Have a great day,
B
Disclaimer: The content covered in this newsletter is not to be considered as investment advice. It is for informational and educational purposes only.
I hold some of the NFTs mentioned in these newsletters